Winton Wood City Schools
Hamilton County
Five Year Forecast
October 2007

Assumptions

 
Revenues

1.) Real Estate – Real Estate is based on the most current tax duplicate information received from the Hamilton County Auditor.  Hamilton County completed its reappraisal effective January 1st 2006.   The latest reappraisal data is included in this projection.  Delinquencies collected were down for the current year and our PUPP values experienced a decline.  Due to HB 920, passed in 1976, we do not receive additional revenue on voted millage.

2.) Tangible Personal Property Tax – HB 66 phases out completely tangible personal property tax.  The District had a tangible personal property tax base of $30 million before the phase out began.  Tangible property includes business equipment, inventories, and fixtures.  The state will phase this tax base out over the next four years.  The District will be held harmless through 2010.  After 2010 the reimbursement will be reduced annually and eventually phase out to zero. 

3.) Unrestricted Grants in Aid has been forecasted based on the latest SF3 information, simulations, and anticipated enrollment decline.  HB66 has phased out the SF-3 CODBF.  In FY05 it was 7.5% in FY06 5.0%, FY07 2.5%, and FY08-FY12 0%.  The District is on the state guarantee and will not receive additional state funding until it falls off the guarantee.   A decrease was forecasted for FY08-FY11 based on the latest State budget and a shift of Poverty Based Assistance funds from unrestricted to restricted funds.  As a result of the latest State budget, the District no longer qualifies for parity aid, which amounted to almost $750,000 for FY07.  This along with the CODBF final phase out caused the District to fall further onto the guarantee. 

4.) Restricted Grants in Aid were updated based on state estimates for Poverty Based Assistance, Career Education and other restricted funding.

5.) Property Tax Allocation is estimated based on projected Real Estate collections.  This is the reimbursement received from the State for homestead and rollback.  Due to House Bill 66, the 10 % rollback for commercial and industrial will no longer be reimbursed by the state.  This amount will be shifted back to the business taxpayers.   Based on new Auditor of State coding, state reimbursement or hold harmless payments will all fall under this revenue category.  The utility deregulation payments eligibility is calculated each year.  For the FY08-FY12 it is assumed we will continue to be eligible and receive the deregulation payments.  Also, the $10,000 exemption phase out for tangible taxpayers has been accelerated and will end in FY09.  The hold harmless for the Tangible Personal Property Tax payments will also be received in this category.

6.) All other revenue, e.g. interest income, fees, tuition, and other, is based upon historical patterns.

Expenditures:

1.) Salaries were estimated based on current negotiated agreements for FY08-FY09 and staffing projections.   For years FY10 and beyond, the district has projected increases based on past trends.

2.) Benefits (retirement, medicare, workers comp) were estimated based on salaries projected.  Health care was projected based on staffing and our current increase in FY08 and 10% increases for FY09-FY12.  Dental increases are projected at 5% for FY09- FY12.  Adjustments were made to all health care and dental plans in order to minimize the rate increase. This was necessary based on the FY07 claims experience of the District.

3.) Purchased Services, Supplies, and Other expenditures were based on projected need.   Starting in FY06, community school tuition was charged to a purchased service line item as opposed to a reduction of state revenue.  Therefore in FY06 there is a spike in Unrestricted Grants-in-Aid (line 1.035) and a spike in Purchased Services (line 3.03)  Based on the state data, community school expenditures are expected to increase by $190,000 from FY07 to FY08.  This increase will also affect FY09-FY12.

4.) Presently, the district does not have any General Fund notes outstanding.  The energy conservation notes matured on 12/1/03 and are paid in full.

5.) Reserve Assumptions – the District spends at levels that do not require setting aside additional revenue in regards to capital improvements and textbooks.  Also SB345 eliminated this requirement.

Other:

1.) New revenue assumptions.  Based on this forecast, a levy is necessary in the  2008 calendar year for collection in fiscal year 2009.
 
2.)Reduction in Expenditures.  This forecast does include reductions in expenditures due to reconfiguration savings and other cost reductions starting in the FY08 school year.  The District is currently analyzing these and other reductions and will update the forecast as necessary.

Please note that any significant changes to these assumptions may cause significant changes to this forecast.